Amounts, sources and forms of financial support Ukraine expexts to receive from foreign partners in 2023

* – the article refers to the amounts of announced support, both those that require further legislative approval and those that have already been approved by the competent authorities of the world and will be used next year. The article also does not mention material assistance or military aid to be transferred to Ukraine in 2023.

Introduction

Ukraine is entering 2023 with a record-breaking state budget deficit of about UAH 1.3 trillion, which is more than 20% of the country’s GDP. To finance the expenditures, it is planned to attract macro-financial assistance from foreign partners. The amount of such assistance is expected to be enormous – at least $39.5 billion is needed to finance the budget needs. In addition, the state needs $17 billion to implement rapid reconstruction projects.

According to the IMF, under these circumstances, the monthly financing needs of the state budget by donors will be approximately $3 to $4 billion.

However, the experience of the past year has shown that this is realistic: since the beginning of the war, the State Budget has managed to attract more than $32 billion in macro-financial assistance, including $14 billion in grants.

In this material, we have collected information on the promised and approved financial support from other countries and international financial institutions for the State Budget for 2023 to understand whether Ukraine will have the macroeconomic capacity to survive the financial challenges of the war and maintain its balance of payments.

In their recent statement of December 22, 2022, the G7 countries expressed their willingness to help our country financially by accumulating funds totaling $32 billion for the next year. We offer to review these proposals of the countries, as well as macrofinancial institutions and intergovernmental organizations.

EU

The EU has committed to lend a total of €18 billion to Ukraine next year under a newly developed assistance instrument (Macro-Financial Assistance+). 

The terms of the loan will be covered in a memorandum of understanding (MoU). They will include, among other things, the fight against corruption, organized crime, and the establishment of a transparent and accountable system to manage recovery and reconstruction.

The purpose of the loan is to help eliminate the budget deficit. To ensure even distribution and ongoing support, the funds will be disbursed in tranches on a quarterly basis throughout the year. 

The mechanism for receiving each tranche under the developed instrument is as follows:

• Ukraine submits a request for funds prior to the disbursement of each tranche, together with a report in accordance with the provisions of the previously concluded Memorandum of Understanding;
• The European Commission decides on the disbursement of funds if there is satisfactory progress in fulfilling the conditions set out in the Memorandum of Understanding.

In addition, the Commission has the right to reduce the amount of funds provided if the need decreases during the year. It is also possible to suspend or terminate disbursements under this instrument in the event of non-compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding.

The grace period before disbursement is 10 years with a maximum maturity of 35 years. Also, this mechanism of assistance from the EU stipulates that member states will provide grant assistance to cover the bulk of the loan costs at the expense of external earmarked revenues. 

These borrowings will be guaranteed either by the EU budget or by member states. In the latter case, the EU member state can contribute by providing a guarantee of up to €18 billion in support in the form of a loan through an agreement with the European Commission. The proportional benchmark for the amount of each state’s contribution is its share of the Union’s gross national income, as set out in the budget for 2023.

The first disbursement is expected as early as January 2023, but a memorandum of understanding must be signed between Ukraine and the EU before the loan can be disbursed. This document is expected to be signed at the end of this year.

USA

This week, the United States of America finally approved its state budget, which, in particular, provides for military and economic support to Ukraine totaling $44.9 billion. 

It should be understood that $13.37 billion of this amount is earmarked for economic and budgetary support, but the wording of the document allows for the allocation of these funds not only to our country, but also to other countries affected by the war in Ukraine. The allocation of funds will be gradual.

Canada

The Government of Canada issued five-year bonds in the amount of USD 500 million denominated in Canadian dollars in support of Ukraine.

Interest on the bonds purchased will be paid twice a year, on February 24 and August 24, until the bond matures in 2027. For example, an investment of $1,000 with a yield of 3.245 percent should expect to receive $16.23 each February and August until 2027.

The bonds mature on August 24, 2027, on Ukraine’s Independence Day, at which time the holders will receive a full repayment of their initial investment.

The proceeds of the bonds will be transferred to Ukraine through a special Administrative Account of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Canada will also transfer $115 million of customs duties received from imports from Russia and Belarus to repair Kyiv’s power grid through the World Bank’s Re-PoWER Ukraine Project.

Other G7 countries

The United Kingdom has not yet announced specific amounts of budget support for the Ukrainian government for the next year, but it has already announced a record military aid package totaling $2.63 billion. According to the latest G7 statement, Japan also promised to support Ukraine.

International financial institutions. Lending and investment intitutions

IMF

This 4-month mission is designed to help Ukraine maintain stability and stimulate donor funding. The program will also help to catalyze urgently needed donor support.

In addition, earlier funds in the amount of 1,005.9 million Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (approximately $1.4 billion), allocated under the March 9 Rapid Financing Facility, provided critical support at the very beginning of the war. The IMF’s subsequently established Administrative Account helped mobilize additional funds for Ukraine in the amount of more than $2 billion in 2022, and will continue to operate next year.

World Bank

It was also announced the launch of a new project “Strengthening the Healthcare System and Saving Lives” (HEAL Ukraine) with initial funding in the form of a €100 million loan from the IBRD, backed by guarantees from the Spanish government, as well as a $10 million grant from the Global Fund to Fund Programs for Women, Children and Adolescents (GFF).

The total financing of this project is also expected to reach $500 million.

EBRD

The main focus will be on supporting the real economy – energy and food security, restoring railway infrastructure, and supporting the pharmaceutical industry.

EIB

The parties will cooperate on the preparation of much-needed projects in the city’s transport infrastructure, including the modernization of the Kyiv Metro rolling stock worth an estimated €450 million.

The project is scheduled to begin in early 2023.

KfW

The grant will cover the costs of paying living allowances to internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Conclusions

Greater predictability of macroeconomic support will ensure more accurate planning and execution of the next year’s State Budget of Ukraine.

The G7 countries and the EU should become the largest donors to Ukraine next year.

In particular, the successful passage of the next fiscal year is expected to be ensured by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Ukraine and the EU totaling up to €18 billion on a concessional loan basis, as well as the allocation of direct budget support from the United States in the amount of up to $13.37 billion over the next year. 

It is also possible that other countries will provide grants and loans and issue bonds in favor of Ukraine directly in 2023.

This and other assistance should help the Ukrainian government cover its planned expenditures, but the amount promised is currently insufficient to meet the estimated need of at least $39.5 billion for the next year.

Coordinated action by donors is needed to address this issue, in particular to ensure sustainable and predictable assistance to help Ukraine overcome the challenges of war.